8 of GDP according to estimates by the OECD for 2008

How much will cost finally in the public finances of the United States (and therefore the taxpayer), if adopted, the rescue of the US banking system Impossible to know because the failure of banks continues with Washington Mutual, the week last and that the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to inject liquidity into the markets. If one takes into account the 200 billion dollars in aid to the two mortgage Giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac put under guardianship agencies, the $ 700 billion of the plan of the Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson to buy toxic assets banks and 100 billion of securities to finance the increase in the balance sheet of the EDF, the invoice exceeds the 7 points of GDP. A colossal, but no doubt already cost very undervalued. Because it is likely that the new President will decide in early 2009 of a new $ 50 billion stimulus plan. The Congress also voted a support plan of 25 billion dollars to a stricken American automotive industry. And it is not finished, the Treasury has announced yesterday that he would issue 140 billion dollars of additional obligations to finance the measures taken by the US Central Bank.

Accounts degraded

The addition grows even more dramatically than the American public accounts are already badly. The budget deficit flirts with 3 points of GDP since the Bush stimulus plan and the total public debt (debt debt of the States and local communities), which has continued to deteriorate during the two terms of Geroge w. Bush, is now comparable to that of the France (1) some 65.8 of GDP, according to estimates by the OECD for 2008.

With the 1,000-1,500 billion which will be submerged to overcome the financial crisis, the budget deficit could therefore reach 9 to 10 of GDP and debt largely exceed 70 in 2009, considers Natixis in a note published last week.

What fear a degradation of the quality of American debt, noted at the time AAA by rating agencies. "Beyond 80 of the GDP, is between a dangerous area", recognizes Jean-François Jamet, Economist and consultant to the World Bank.

However, if the question is asked, it remains fairly theoretical. US Treasury bills snapped at rates almost zero, showing intact trust of investors to the world's largest economy. It is true that it is very short term and that all other investments are much more risky.

In addition, it is difficult to judge the limit not exceeding for the United States, taking into account "special in the world economy status", including the dollar's reserve currency role, considers Natixis. The Bank said however that, to assess the quality of a State Standard & Poor's is based on various criteria, of course, the weight of the debt but also "systemic risk related to the banking sector" The Treasury rescue plan should therefore be regarded as a positive element by the agencies. In addition, continued Natixis, "even with a debt between 70 and 80 of the GDP, the United States remain well below the levels attained by the Italy (more than 100) and Japan (150)" .

Growth threatened

The US administration specifically wants to avoid at all costs the situation that the Japan was known after the crisis of 1991: ten years of sluggish growth, believes his side Economist Alain Villemeur (2). For him, the degradation of the quality of the debt is not on the agenda of the day, because "the outstanding ability of rebound of the US economy." He argued both main engines: on the one hand, a policy counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary very reactive as soon as the economy slows. And, on the other hand, a dynamic innovation policy, as illustrates it the increase in the resources devoted to R & D in budget 2007. What maintain confidence.