Thus in his eyes recovery remains timid

The impact of the economic crisis continues to spread in the market of the real estate business. 271.500 Jobs destroyed in France in the first half and 5.5 in the third quarter were melt surfaces needs and corrected price. The statement that employment is the most direct indicator of the consequences of the real estate economy is also relevant in the housing. End September 2009, transactions signed in Ile-de-France since January 1 were on 1.227.000 m2, according to figures collected by Immostat, against 1.911.000 m2durant the same period of 2008. "The year rankings by 1.750.000 placed m2", prognostic, optimistic, Jacques Bagge, Director of the Department Agency Jones Lang LaSalle France, noting that new buildings will have allowed the majority of placed surfaces this year, available to rental values discounted from the spring of 2008.

"Rents will continue their decline everywhere while accompanying measures will increase." "Among the 3.4 million square metres available today or the 4.5 million m2 available for one year, the part of the buildings adapted to the research of users is reduced," regrets. Jean-Michel Ciuch, Director of studies of the Credit Foncier until last July, was "real rents declined by 15 to 25 a year" and he anticipated a new fall, net rental franchises and other business gifts, at a minimum of 20 ".BNP Paribas Real Estate evaluates the available supply to one year to 5 million m2, of which a third party only in nine as of January 2010, taking into account already to date 4.7 million m2. The President of its transactions Department, Max Le Roux, adds "that the net uptake will be negative this year, included between less 100.000 and 200.000 m2. It will be early 2011 so it again becomes positive.

FORTISSIMO ma non troppo

The vacancy rate of offices, 6.6 at the end of September for the whole of the region, could reach 8 at end of 2010. Hyperclassique market situation where companies want to move that in the new results, in addition to a development concern the supply of second hand, caution of good practice on the part of the promoters and investors, which, in any event, are struggling to finance operations at risk. "We see a quasi-arrêt of the starts of offices since the beginning of the year, which inhibits the production of environment-friendly programs increasingly requested by users", confirmed Maurice Gauchot, President of CBRE France. These two elements together: lack of adapted products and scarcity of new projects, would highlight this market of offices, source of a potential escalation of rents players... after a drop, which will extend.

According to Immostat, the amount invested in Ile-de-France to 30 September amounted to EUR 3 billion. "Therefore that rates of return have decreased and thus the market is"too expensive", as was the case in early 2009, can expect a total of 5 billion euros invested this year", says Benoît du Passage, President of Jones Lang LaSalle France.

Although it should stipulate that this amount will include "swap" (Exchange) between investors, cannot refuse this resumption "fortissimo ma non troppo" investments. The specialist said that the players in the place believed in March that the sale price of the surfaces of offices should be divided by two to encourage investors to return. "This fix is made since September 30.". "Rates of return continue to fall and also returns", he says. However, this fix only affects, according to Maurice Gauchot, "that the best assets, those coveted by investors, that is new or recent, well placed buildings, rented property and therefore very secure."Thus, in his eyes, "recovery remains timid." The improvement is more in heads in the facts. "Max Le Roux wants to see in the negotiations renewed recorded by advice a message of hope and believes that"the crisis is behind us. "

Benedict of the Passage States that investment figures settle at EUR 7 billion in 2010, an amount of otherwise well below what he be the pace of cruise for the capital region, or 20 billion euros per year. This total had been achieved in 2007, but 4.7 8.4 billion in 2008. "We will be returned to an average low of EUR 10 billion and 2011", predicted Max Le Roux.

The case for investment in Ile-de-France abound. Paris offers opportunities of adjustment, higher than in London, where the rental values remained high, say the professionals. "The phases of cycles of these two markets closer and what is happening today in London should apply to Paris in three months," prognostic Maurice Gauchot made optimistic by the resumption of investment presentation. Recent sales of the European headquarters of HSBC at Canary Wharf to a South Korean Fund for an amount of 864 million euros or building d el' Embassy of the United States to London in a sovereign wealth Fund of the Qatar confirm a renewed vitality.

Beyond these transactions lighthouses, "the largest investors in Europe are the German funds, who prefer to remain in the euro area and for which the Council of Ile-de-France market with a fleet of 49 million square metres is the most beautiful target", say, unanimous, the agents, attentive to the movements of insurance Europe prepare to attack as soon as 2010.Paris and his first Crown, 31 million of m2de offices on a total Council of Ile-de-France close to 50 million m2, have allowed "only" 3 billion euros in nine months, when the greater London has captured 5.6 at the same time on its fleet of 23 million square metres - against 8.8 billion euros during the same period of 2008. While the decline in the pound was penalized investors already in place in Britain, but the City and West End took advantage to attract new entrants. "The Council of Ile-de-France market demonstrates its resistance to the brutal volatility that the United Kingdom and other European cities," noted Alain Béchade, Professor at the CNAM. A Council of Ile-de-France market less stormy than neighbouring European and far less concerned than his British compétiteru, which could suffer revelations from Dubai.