1 million pounds against a deficit of 5

Natural uranium market languished. A $ 42 book last week, its price in cash still exceeds significantly courses systematically lower than the $ 20 of the long period between the years 1980 and 2004. But it has melted more two-thirds since the peaks of the spring 2007 (137 dollars a pound at the top).

Last political jolts in Niger, a country which in 2009 has delivered 3.200 tons of this natural resource, or 6 of world production, did revive the hope of a quick recovery of the course. Hope shared by Edward Sterck, analyst at BMO Capital Markets, which, in a report released Friday, found that prices could receive boost "in the short term" If the masters new Niger "were tempted to interfere with the domestic production of uranium or advancing additional requirements from the producers", the first in which, far before its competitors, is the French Areva.

Longer term, a possible destabilization of the Nigerian production of this mineral resource could threaten the rise from this extractive planned by 2015. This horizon, the black African countries should indeed represent 9 of the overall offer.

For the time being, team who managed the coup had not hampered production. "If you look at the effects of the previous coup in Niger, they did not induce changes in the production" of uranium, said Edward Sterck. Alarmism is therefore inappropriate.

Step of immediate disruption

The fundamentals of the market do not appear to be upset in the immediate future. Evidenced by a cash market which is not ripped from its traditional seasonal torpor. In 2009, but the uranium on the spot market had climbed to 27 of the total, at the record level of 50 million pounds through the slump of the courts which had made it more attractive than long term contract market. Operators are still waiting for that Asian electricians return in force in the market. Gene Clark, pattern of TradeTech, said in early February that "2010 brings the promise of a modest recovery" of the market. The expected demand increase will however not allow price out in the two years of between 40 and 60 dollars a pound, he said.

Deutsche Bank said the dose by stating that 2010 will be another difficult year for the price of uranium. Only 3 new reactors were ordered in 2009 and 6 total will come in activity this year, indicates the financial institution of German.

The situation should recover later under the progressive entry into production by 2020 of the 94 new reactors under construction in the world and Asia particularly. While the application is still sentencing these days, the Kazakhstan, second largest producer behind the Canada, has increased its rate 9.5 in 2009. It was followed in this path by other important countries for uranium: Namibia, number four world); the South Africa (11emondial) and Ukraine (9eau classification of the World Association of nuclear). The production effort by these countries in 2009 should switch in 2010 the market in a small excess supply of 1.1 million pounds, against a deficit of 5.4 million last year.