Eric Woerth must now engage in a complicated exercise

Eric Woerth must now engage in a complicated exercise. Speaking in Parliament for the reading of the conclusions of the joint mixed Committee on the Bill of finance 2009, the Minister of the Budget should clarify the Government's public deficit forecast, while the revision of the growth and stimulus of the economy have blurred the horizon. Formally, the Government must take into account, in this final parliamentary stage of the 2009 budget, first taken in the 2008 collective stimulus measures (advances cash to companies, essentially), which will put the forecast deficit of the State for the year next EUR 57.6 billion to more than 65 billion. But this will only be a partial estimate. Eric Woerth will also detail the impact of other stimulus measures integrated in the 2009 class (acceleration of investments, aid for employment, etc.), which will be presented Friday by the Council of Ministers and discussed in the Assembly from January 6.

Pessimistic assumptions

The recovery plan will focus the forecast deficit of the State around 76 billion euros ("Les Echos" from December 5). On the chart, it will reach even 79 billion because should add 3 billion appropriation to the special "financial interests of the State" trust account, in respect of staffing in liquidity from the strategic investment Fund (FIS). And, even if these 3 billion, funded by debt, not will be not integrated in the public deficit in the Maastrichtian sense. The deficit posted by Bercy should stay at 76 billion, with a strong argument to justify: for the year 2007, the Government had communicated on a deficit of the State to EUR 38.4 billion while he could display it 34.7 billion (assignments of securities EDF having credited the special allocation account).

"The Justice of the peace, it is the balance of public deficit to GDP," on slice in Bercy. A balance anticipated to 3.9 in 2009. But the rapporteur of the Budget in the Senate, Philippe Marini (UMP), believes that "the public deficit could even approach the 5 points of GDP in 2009 and 2010, if the crisis continues". A scenario envisaged in his report on the 2008 collective, published early in the week, based on "less optimistic assumptions in terms of control of expenditure", in particular those of the Unedic and local communities. While holding "indispensable" stimulus package, Philippe Marini takes note of the fact that the standard "zero volume", namely the State spending growth limited to inflation, shall not be held in 2009. It considers that the appropriations of the stimulus package to add will be "of the order of EUR 11.7 billion": investments, advances to communities, sectoral aid, exemptions in the TPE, premium of active solidarity, advances on government procurement... Which will lead to "a pace for the expenditure of the State in the volume of the order of 3.4.

All investments that can be made in 2009 and Bercy not including advances, the Government should enter a lower number (progression in volume around 2). These spending additional, budget or not, will be listed in a special mission "stimulus", driven by the new Minister, Patrick Devedjian, in order to maintain a "zero volume" display for the rest of the credits. And do not see Government departments exempt from any discipline.